Wednesday, 13 July 2011

Can Pakistani Military Defeat Taliban?


On Thursday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani declared in a televised national address that the Pakistani government would pursue no further peace deals with the Pakistani Taliban but was rather dedicated to eliminating them and reasserting national writ in the northwest of the country. The speech marked a major shift in policy for the Pakistani government, which has fought militants in the Pushtun areas off and on for years. President Pervez Musharraf was the first to attempt to conclude a truce with them, in 2006
There are lessons to draw from such research that can help in dealing with the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan:
Pakistan needs an interferon strategy to disrupt the growth of Talibanization in Pakistan. With international help, such a strategy should rely on extensive use of soft power that creates economic incentives for young men to stay away from the Taliban.
The use of military force, the equivalent of the killer T-cells in the body, to respond to Pakistan's Taliban insurgency needs to be carefully calibrated to do the job effectively. These soldiers (T-cells) must minimize the death of innocent civilians (healthy cells) or collateral damage. Too little force will not stop the insurgents. But too much force can create a powerful backlash against the military's efforts and become counterproductive.

Watching public opinion in Pakistan is the key to success for all parties involved in bringing peace and stability to Pakistan. With Taliban’s recent well-publicized excesses in Swat, Pakistan public opinion has begun to turn against the Taliban. But public opinion is fickle and it can change again. While it is understandable that there will be refugees who must be well cared for, the Pakistani public opinion will shift against Pakistani government if the military is seen as displacing or killing large numbers of innocent civilians caught in the battle, or the US continues its attacks that end up killing innocent civilians. There is a lot of sensitivity required during the counterinsurgency operations.

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